North Korean Launches, Next Test Speculation
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By John M. Doyle

North Korea’s test launch of four-short range missiles today raised speculation that Pyongyang might attempt another long-range ballistic missile test on or about July 4, Independence Day in the arch-enemy United States.
News organizations reported, and the Pentagon confirmed July 2, that North Korea test-fired four missiles into the Sea of Japan. North Korea and its behavior “continues to be unpredictable,” Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said, though he added that the missile launch “was not unexpected.”
Last month, North Korea declared a danger zone in the waters off its eastern coast through July 10. That fueled speculation that the communist regime might attempt another July 4th spectacular, as it did in 2006 when it fired several medium-range missiles, along with one intercontinental ballistic missile that failed shortly after launch.
Concerns about another belligerent North Korean act in light of United Nations resolutions forbidding its ICBM launches come as President Barack Obama prepares to meet with Russian officials in Moscow to discuss nuclear arms reductions, non-proliferation, European security and rogue states like Iran and North Korea (Aerospace DAILY, July 2).
While some observers have speculated that North Korea may launch a missile toward Hawaii, David Wright, co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Global Security Program, says such an attack seems highly unlikely.
The failure of its April 5 launch to place a satellite in orbit suggests that North Korea might intend another satellite launch using the same kind of launch vehicle, the Unha-2, he said. In May, North Korea conducted a second nuclear test with greater results than an earlier attempt.
While it would have the capability to reach the continental U.S. with a payload of one ton or more if North Korea modified it for use as a ballistic missile, the Unha launcher appears to be constructed from components that were probably not manufactured in North Korea, Wright added. It is likely that the critical rocket components were acquired from other countries, possibly Russia. If true, it could mean that North Korea’s missile capability could be significantly constrained if it can be denied access to such components.
Photo: NASA