Embraer announces long-term commercial aviation market outlook
Company presents 20-year forecast of world demand for 30- to 120-seat segment
São José dos Campos, July 19, 2010 – Embraer announced its 20-year forecast, today, for
commercial aircraft in the 30- to 120-seat segment. This category serves low- and mediumdensity markets and is an essential component of commercial aviation. The outlook analyzes industry trends by world region and identifies the demand for new aircraft from 2010 to 2029.
Among the key trends are:
Air Traffic Growth:
- 4.9% world average annual increase over the next 20 years;
- demand in 2029 will reach more than 12 trillion Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK),
2.7 times greater than in 2009;
- China’s annual growth rate will be the highest, at 7.3%;
- Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Russia & CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States)
air traffic is forecast to grow 6% annually;
- annual growth in Africa will average about 5%;
- North America and Europe will see average growth around 3.5% per year;
- Asia Pacific and China will represent more than one-third of the world air traffic by 2029;
- mature markets (USA and Europe) will decrease their share of world air traffic from
57% in 2009 to 44% in 2029.
Environment:
More stringent limits on noise and emissions will mandate the development of cleanerburning
fuel and quieter aircraft. Embraer has been a leader in exploring technologies that will
make its products compliant with future environmental restrictions. The family of E-Jets
already reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by up to 50%, compared to oldergeneration
aircraft. Some 1,100 jets operated by scheduled airlines in the 30- to 120-seat
category are over 15 years old and will need to be replaced.
Embraer forecasts that the size of the world fleet of 30- to 120-seat jets will increase from
4,285 aircraft in 2009 to 7,780 in 2029. During this period, 51% of the new deliveries (3,495
units) will be added to support current growth and 49% (3,380 units) will be needed to replace
ageing equipment. By 2029, 21% of the current fleet (905 jets) will still be in operation.
For new aircraft, Embraer foresees global demand for 6,875 jets in the 30- to 120-seat
segment over the next 20 years. The estimated market value of these new orders is
approximately US$ 200 billion. Of this total, 2,895 jets are planned to be delivered between
2010 and 2019, and the remaining 3,980 units between 2020 and 2029.
Embraer’s market outlook has analyzed each segment. For example, demand for 50-seat
regional jets has matured, yet there are opportunities for replacement over the next 20 years.
The aircraft will continue to feed hubs and provide service to smaller communities in the U.S.
and Europe. Fifty-seat jets will support the development of regional aviation in other areas of
the world, such as Russia & CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America.
Aircraft in the 60- to 120-seat category will continue to improve overall industry efficiency.
These airplanes will help to reduce excess capacity by rightsizing fleets comprised of larger
narrowbody jets. Aircraft in this segment are replacing old equipment, developing new
markets and allowing airlines to grow gradually with smaller seat increments.
Embraer’s Market Outlook is available at www.EmbraerCommercialJets.com.
Source: EMBRAER
