World Military Fleets Weigh Upgrade Priorities

By Elyse Moody

New analysis by consultancy Forecast International estimates that nearly $20 billion will be spent on upgrading military aircraft fleets through 2018, with the U.S. alone earmarking $9.5 billion for fighter/attack/trainer retrofits and modernization. "Overall, [that figure] is pretty similar to what we were showing for the last few years though it is down a little bit," said Adam Feld, an airborne retrofit and modernization analyst with Forecast International.

Details of the Obama administration's first defense budget request still are forthcoming, and some expect that major cuts could be contained in the budget for fiscal 2011 and beyond, though the U.S. budget topline will grow a bit in fiscal 2010. While Feld says that the economic turmoil spreading across the globe is having an effect on defense budgets, including upgrade funding, the $20 billion figure his firm estimates has not yet experienced a significant shift down.

Indeed, the study finds that the global recession is pushing governments to be cautious and focused on immediate needs. To meet the challenges of the counterinsurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, many Western nations aim to improve their air fleets' ground-support role with improved sensors and precision-guided strike capabilities, while also trying to maintain traditional air superiority. Eastern nations, then, seek to maintain parity. Forecast International notes that China, Russia, Pakistan and India have launched major efforts to modernize their military fleets, the study says.

The demand for upgrading military fleets looks promising, although not across the board. Other work, such as re-engining, faces a tougher sell as it requires upfront spending and achieving savings only in the long run.

"Caught between changing needs and tight budgets, militaries will seek upgrades for their air fleets that grant the greatest capability without being prohibitively expensive," says the analysis.